Iran proxy attacks on US troops in Iraq, Syria drop off as Red Sea heats up
It’s been more than a month since groups have targeted U.S. troops in those countries, but the Pentagon isn’t letting its guard down.
It’s been more than a month since Iran-backed militia groups attacked U.S. troops in Iraq, Syria or Jordan. U.S. officials hope it’s a sign that previous airstrikes — and the threat of more — are working.
But the Pentagon says it’s not getting complacent, as nearby in the Red Sea, the Yemen-based Houthis, another Iranian proxy, continue launching missiles and drones on international shipping.
Two people were killed and six injured when a Houthi missile struck a Liberian-owned ship, the MV True Confidence, on Wednesday, the first deaths of the Houthis’ campaign. Meanwhile, a U.K.-owned ship the Houthis struck last month, the MV Rubymar, sank on Saturday, the first vessel lost in the attacks.
But in Iraq and Syria, a tenuous cease-fire appears to have taken hold. The last time Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria launched an attack on American forces in the region was Feb. 4, according to Defense Department spokesperson Lt. Col. Bryon McGarry.
In total, the groups attacked U.S. troops there 170 times since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack in Israel, spiking tensions in the region. Three U.S. soldiers died on Jan. 28 in a drone strike in Jordan, sending shockwaves through the Pentagon and prompting President Joe Biden to vow a strong response.
The U.S. conducted major retaliatory airstrikes on the militant groups on Feb. 2, hitting more than 85 targets at seven sites with U.S. bombers and other aircraft during a 30-minute operation that killed dozens of militants. The sites were linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, a unit of Iran’s military forces, sending a message not just to the militias but to their Iranian backers.
Then on Feb. 7, the U.S. military killed a senior leader of Kataib Hezbollah, one of the militia groups, in a drone strike in eastern Baghdad. Both U.S. strikes were part of the Biden administration’s multiphase retaliation for the soldiers who died in Jordan.
Almost immediately after the fatal drone strike in Baghdad, and fearing a large-scale American retaliation as the Biden administration telegraphed a “multi-tiered” response, Iran reportedly sent private messages to Kataib Hezbollah to cease the attacks. The group quickly announced a stand down.
“The U.S. strikes and actions across Syria in Iraq, unquestionably have had an effect,” said Charles Lister, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, noting that the latest U.S. military actions were “the straw that broke the camel’s back in terms of the risk calculus” both for Iran and the militias.
Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said while “we are obviously glad that we have not seen additional attacks,” the department is not letting its guard down.
“I don’t want to put myself in a situation where I’m predicting the future,” Ryder said during a Feb. 29 briefing. “If we are threatened or attacked, as we’ve demonstrated, we will take appropriate measures to safeguard our forces.”
Lister also urged caution in declaring victory, noting that the militias, which have existed in Iraq since the early 2000s, are committed to the long-term goal of ending the U.S. presence in the region. The groups have a history of attacking U.S. troops on and off for years, unrelated to the current crisis in Gaza.
The pause in attacks is “just a blip — it’s a hiccup in a decades-long regional struggle,” Lister said.
The future of the tenuous cease-fire now depends on a variety of factors, Lister said, including the U.S. election, the talks between the U.S. and Iraqi government about the future footprint of American troops in the country, and the conflict in Gaza.
“There’s a lot of moving pieces at play here that could still change this equation and put us back into the place where we were just a few weeks ago,” he said.
Meanwhile in the Red Sea, the Houthis are continuing and even ramping up their campaign, as U.S. forces respond in self-defense. On Tuesday alone, U.S. forces shot down one anti-ship ballistic missile and three one-way attack drones launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, and later destroyed three more anti-ship missiles and three unmanned surface vessels that presented an imminent threat to commercial and U.S. Navy shipping.
These incidents have become a regular occurrence since the Yemen-based rebels began attacking ships in November. The group has conducted at least 67 attacks since Nov. 19, McGarry said.
The assaults have disrupted global trade, forcing shipping firms to divert vessels carrying grain, oil and other goods to the longer route around southern Africa instead of through the Red Sea.
U.S. officials warn that the sinking of the Rubymar poses major environmental risk for the region, as thousands of tons of fertilizer threatened to spill into the Red Sea.
In response to the attacks, DOD announced in December an international effort, Operation Prosperity Guardian, to safeguard commercial and military ships in the region. Meanwhile, the U.S. and U.K. have carried out a series of pre-planned airstrikes designed to degrade Houthi military capabilities in Yemen. But the Houthis’ assaults continue.
“The Houthis essentially will never be deterred, in my opinion,” said Mick Mulroy, a retired Marine, CIA officer and former top Pentagon official in the Trump administration. “Our only option is to destroy or degrade their means to carry out attacks.”
Still, Ryder said Tuesday that DOD would continue its multinational approach to the problem.
“We have a significant amount of capability already in the region, but it’s not just about the U.S.,” Ryder said. “We will continue to work with allies and partners. And as we continue to need more, we’ll certainly work with them, and certainly are willing to take any and all helpers on that front.”